According to noradarealestate.com, recent data show a noticeable uptick in home sales across California, with the Bay Area joining the trend. In October 2025 alone, existing single-family home sales across the state climbed by 4.1% compared to the same month the previous year. In the Bay Area specifically, overall sales rose 2.5% year-over-year — and in San Francisco, CA, the increase was an impressive 11.5%.
📈 What the Numbers Say: Demand Is Climbing
San Francisco Leads in Sales Growth
San Francisco’s 11.5% growth in home sales stands out in a market that’s otherwise seeing more modest increases or uneven activity. Neighboring counties like San Mateo County, CA (+15.5%), Alameda County, CA (+10.5%, excluding condos), and Contra Costa County, CA (+2.2%) all contributed to the regional uptick.
Other counties such as Marin County, CA saw a decline in sales (-5.2%), while Sonoma County, CA saw a small single-family homes uptick (+2.5%) — underscoring that the Bay Area isn’t a monolith; each county is moving to its own beat.
Price Trends: Steadiness Rather Than Spikes
Where prices are concerned, things are stabilizing. Statewide median sale price in October 2025 hovered around $886,960, with year-over-year change showing almost no movement (a slight 0.2% dip).
In the Bay Area, the median dropped slightly — a 1.1% year-over-year decrease to $1.3 million. Still, that's just a minor pullback from recent highs, suggesting a market that’s cooling but far from crashing — which can be good news for buyers wary of overheated bubbles.
Looking at county-level shifts:
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San Francisco felt a modest rebound with a 5.7% increase in median price.
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In the high-price counties, Santa Clara County, CA saw a slight increase (0.3%), while San Mateo ticked up more meaningfully (9.5%).
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In contrast, counties like Napa County, CA and Sonoma registered slight declines (–1.2% and –0.5%, respectively).
All told, price stability — rather than sharp rises — seems to define this stage of the market.
🏡 Supply & Inventory: The Competition Remains Fierce
Inventory remains tight across the Bay Area, particularly in San Francisco.
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The statewide “Unsold Inventory Index” (UII) sits at 3.2 months.
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In the Bay Area, it’s much lower — just 2.2 months.
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Drilling down further: San Francisco’s UII is a mere 1.2 months.
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Other tight counties include San Mateo (1.7 months) and Santa Clara (1.5 months).
These numbers indicate a strong sellers’ market. With limited supply, demand is concentrated, and competition for well-located, well-priced homes remains intense.
Meanwhile, homes are still selling relatively quickly. While statewide median “days on market” rose slightly (to 32 days in October 2025), that doesn’t tell the full story region-by-region.
In the Bay Area — especially in seller-favored zones — many homes are still moving faster than the national average.
🧭 What This Means: Opportunity + Strategy
For Buyers — Look Beyond the Hype
If you’re a buyer in 2025, the current stabilization in prices coupled with tight inventory suggests caution with timing and expectations. The slightly cooler median price might offer a better entry point than during previous peak moments. That said, limited supply means you’ll want to act quickly when a desirable property becomes available — especially in hot counties like San Mateo, Santa Clara or central San Francisco.
With inventory so low, find yourself a strong offer — possibly including flexibility on timing or a competitive deposit — and be ready to move on it.
For Sellers — Still an Advantage, But With Smart Pricing
Sellers continue to enjoy favorable conditions. With inventory down and demand up, there remains a strong chance for pricing power — especially for well-priced, move-in ready homes.
However, with prices stabilizing and competition rising in terms of newly listed homes, overpricing could backfire. Positioning the property at a realistic but attractive level could maximize interest and reduce time on market.
For Investors — Patience and Precision Pay Off
For investors eyeing long-term value, now may be a smart time to watch carefully. Tight inventory suggests that rental demand will stay high — and properties that combine reasonable price points with strong location appeal and good management could perform well.
With price growth tapering in some areas, returns may hinge more on consistent rental demand and less on speculative price jumps.
🔍 What’s Driving the Shift (And What to Watch)
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Buyer sentiment improving: After some years of uncertainty, many buyers seem ready to re-enter the market. Steady employment, return-to-office trends, and tech-sector stability may be helping.
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Sellers holding tight: Many homeowners with low existing interest rates are reluctant to sell, keeping supply restricted.
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Selective price resilience: In traditionally expensive counties (San Mateo, Santa Clara), prices are holding up — indicating sustained demand among higher-income buyers.
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Balanced correction in some areas: Counties with slight price dips might offer a window for affordability seekers — though supply remains thin.
🔮 Looking Ahead
As we move through the rest of 2025, it’s likely the Bay Area market will continue balancing demand and supply. Prices may remain stable, but competition for the best homes will stay high.
For buyers: prepare to act fast, and focus on quality and value.
For sellers: realistic pricing paired with strong presentation will attract attention.
For investors: long-term rental demand may make more sense than speculative flips — especially in tighter supply zones.
Whether you’re advising clients, scouting properties, or investing, the Bay Area continues to offer opportunity — but with a sharper need for strategy, timing, and insight.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing in the Bay Area and want guidance tailored to your goals, reach out to Marks Realty Group anytime. We’re here to help you navigate the market with clarity, strategy, and confidence.
source: noradarealestate.com
