According to sfgate.com, while much of the U.S. housing market has cooled into buyer-friendly territory, California — and especially the Bay Area — continues to move to a very different rhythm. Across most states, buyers are negotiating prices below list. In San Francisco and surrounding markets, however, homes are still frequently selling above asking price, reinforcing the region’s long-standing reputation for resilience, scarcity, and long-term desirability.
This contrast matters deeply for anyone buying or selling in San Francisco or Marin County. Understanding why the Bay Area continues to outperform national trends helps buyers set realistic expectations and allows sellers to position their homes strategically in 2026.
The Bay Area Is an Outlier in a Cooling National Market
Recent national data shows a clear shift: bidding wars have faded in most U.S. cities, and price reductions are becoming more common. Yet only a handful of metro areas still see buyers consistently paying over list price — and three of them are in Northern California.
In fact, San Francisco leads the country.
Average Sale Prices Compared to List Price
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San Francisco: Homes sell for about 3.8% above asking, the highest premium nationwide
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San Jose: Buyers pay roughly 2.3% over list
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Oakland: Homes average 1.3% above asking
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Most U.S. metros: Homes sell below list price
For San Francisco sellers, this means pricing and presentation still matter enormously. For buyers, it confirms that competition hasn’t disappeared — it has simply become more selective.
Why Buyers Are Still Paying More in San Francisco and Marin County
The Bay Area’s ability to resist national cooling trends isn’t accidental. Several structural and economic factors continue to support higher prices.
1. Chronic Housing Shortages
Housing supply in San Francisco and Marin County remains historically tight.
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Limited land for new development
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Strict zoning and permitting processes
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Minimal large-scale new construction
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Strong neighborhood preservation policies
With demand consistently outpacing supply, prices remain supported even when national conditions soften.
2. Strategic Underpricing Still Works
In many Bay Area neighborhoods, homes are intentionally listed slightly below perceived market value to generate interest and competition. When demand converges, final sale prices often rise above asking — not because the home was overpriced, but because the strategy succeeded.
This approach is especially common in:
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San Francisco single-family homes
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Marin County properties with views, privacy, or architectural character
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Well-located condos near transit, parks, or village centers
3. Tech, AI, and Office Returns Are Fueling Demand
The growth of artificial intelligence, data infrastructure, and advanced tech has strengthened high-income employment in San Francisco. At the same time, more companies are encouraging or requiring in-office or hybrid work, pulling buyers back toward urban and close-in suburban locations.
For Marin County, this often translates into:
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Demand for homes with space to work from home
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Interest in properties near ferry routes and Highway 101
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Renewed appeal of towns like Mill Valley, Larkspur, San Anselmo, and Corte Madera
How California Compares to Other States Right Now
While Bay Area buyers pay premiums, buyers in other regions are seeing meaningful discounts.
Markets Where Buyers Pay Less Than Asking
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South Florida cities: discounts ranging from 7% to 9%
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Austin, Texas: homes selling about 7% below list
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Many Sun Belt metros: rising inventory and price cuts
The difference highlights how California’s market behaves less like a boom-and-bust cycle and more like a pressure system — tightening, easing, and rebalancing without collapsing.
Are Buyers Still Struggling With Affordability?
Yes — affordability remains one of the biggest challenges in California real estate.
Key Affordability Data
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Over 30% of California listings are priced above $1 million
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This share has increased significantly since 2020
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A median-income household cannot comfortably afford a median-priced home in any California metro using the 30% income rule
As of late 2025, the median home price in California hovered around $850,000, only slightly lower than a year earlier. Prices may not be surging, but they also aren’t falling meaningfully.
What This Means for San Francisco Buyers in 2026
Buyers have more leverage than during the peak frenzy — but this is not a deep discount market.
Buyers Should Expect:
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Fewer bidding wars, but not zero
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Strong competition for turnkey, well-located homes
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Price sensitivity for homes that need work or are poorly positioned
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Negotiation opportunities outside the most desirable neighborhoods
Must-Have Features Buyers Are Prioritizing
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Flexible space for home offices
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Natural light and outdoor access
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Proximity to transit or ferry routes
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Energy efficiency and lower operating costs
Preparation, strong financing, and local insight make a major difference.
What This Means for Marin County and San Francisco Sellers
Sellers are no longer guaranteed instant, no-contingency offers — but well-priced homes still perform.
Sellers Who Succeed in 2026:
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Price based on real neighborhood data, not peak-era expectations
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Invest in presentation, staging, and marketing
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Understand which features buyers are paying premiums for
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Work with professionals who know micro-markets block by block
In many cases, the right strategy still results in offers above asking — especially in Marin County neighborhoods with limited inventory.
Looking Ahead: A More Balanced, Healthier Market
As mortgage rates stabilize and price growth moderates, 2026 is shaping up to be more balanced than the extremes of recent years. For San Francisco and Marin County, that balance doesn’t mean weakness — it means opportunity.
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Buyers gain clarity and choice
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Sellers benefit from sustained demand
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Prices remain supported by long-term fundamentals
Thinking About Buying or Selling in San Francisco or Marin County?
Every neighborhood — from Pacific Heights to Sausalito, from Noe Valley to Kentfield — behaves differently. Hyper-local data, pricing nuance, and timing matter more than ever.
If you’re considering a move in San Francisco or Marin County, now is the time to plan strategically, not guess.
Reach out to Marks Realty Group for local insight, honest guidance, and a data-driven approach tailored to your goals. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply exploring your options, expert local knowledge makes all the difference.
source: sfgate.com
