According to Compass, the San Francisco and Marin County real estate markets entered their typical mid-winter holiday slowdown in November. Listing activity eased, sales volume tapered, and the usual year-end quiet settled in. December is traditionally the slowest month of the year — and 2025 is following that familiar rhythm.
But behind this seasonal pause lies an unmistakably positive story of strength and renewed demand, especially in San Francisco.
San Francisco: A Powerful Fall Surge Driven by the AI Boom
Even with the predictable winter cooldown, San Francisco finished fall on an exceptionally strong note. Nearly every major market indicator — pricing, competitive bidding, inventory movement, and speed of sale — reflected a remarkable jump in buyer demand.
A major catalyst has been the fast-growing AI and startup boom, which continues to draw talent, investment, and energy into the city. As a result, San Francisco is now considered one of the most active and competitive housing markets in the country.
Looking Ahead to January
Historically, the San Francisco market reawakens quickly after the holidays, with activity surging through the first quarter and building toward spring. This pattern held true in early 2025 as well — until economic turbulence caused by the “tariff shock” temporarily slowed momentum in April.
With the tech sector heating up once again, January 2026 is poised to reopen with enthusiasm.
Marin County: Seasonal Quiet, Strategic Opportunities
Marin County followed its typical late-year pattern as well. November brought a noticeable drop in both listings and closed sales — a trend that usually deepens through December.
But this quieter period often presents unique opportunities:
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🎯 Buyers who remain active in December can often negotiate more favorably, especially on homes with longer days on market.
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🎯 Well-priced, well-presented new listings still attract strong interest and can sell quickly — often above the asking price.
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🎯 Sellers who bring a move-in-ready home to the market this month may capture buyers eager to secure a property before spring.
What’s Next
Marin typically experiences a strong rise in demand shortly after the new year as well. The early months of 2025 demonstrated this clearly before broad economic conditions softened the market in April.
This December report covers key late-year indicators, while the upcoming January report will offer a full review of 2025 trends within a multi-year context.
Broader Financial Signals Leaning Positive
The early days of December brought encouraging developments in the national financial landscape:
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📈 The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded from November’s declines.
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🏦 The 30-year mortgage rate fell to its lowest level in roughly 14 months.
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😊 Consumer confidence ticked modestly upward — still below historic norms, but improving.
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🔍 Markets now await the Federal Reserve’s year-end rate decision and the upcoming inflation report, both of which could influence early-2026 real estate dynamics.
Ready to Take Advantage of the New Year Market?
Whether you're considering buying, selling, or simply planning ahead, January is shaping up to be an exciting window of opportunity in both San Francisco and Marin.
Contact Marks Realty Group if you have any questions, we are here to help you.
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