According to Compass, the San Francisco and Marin County housing markets are entering 2026 with renewed momentum—driven by shifting economic conditions, rising buyer confidence, and powerful local dynamics that are reshaping demand across the Bay Area.
San Francisco Real Estate Market Outlook
In early 2025, buyer demand across the Bay Area started strong, but political and economic uncertainty in the spring slowed market activity. By mid-to-late summer, however, conditions changed meaningfully. Stock markets rebounded to new highs, interest rates began a sustained decline, and buyer and seller confidence steadily improved.
In San Francisco, this recovery has been amplified by the city’s accelerating AI and technology startup boom. After several challenging years marked by population shifts and economic headwinds, San Francisco has moved from being one of the Bay Area’s weakest-performing markets to its strongest.
According to Compass data, demand is now significantly outpacing available housing inventory, particularly for single-family homes. New wealth creation tied to the tech and AI sectors has intensified competition, especially in prime neighborhoods. Market conditions are approaching—and may surpass—levels last seen during the 2019 IPO cycle.
Key local highlights include:
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Median home prices projected to reach new highs in 2026
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Luxury homes seeing the strongest competition, particularly in Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, and the Marina
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Condo prices in top-tier districts already setting new records in 2025
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A reviving condo market, fueled by high-tech professionals returning to the city and prioritizing urban living
As 2026 begins, interest rates are near multi-year lows and equity markets remain at or near all-time highs. Historically, this combination brings buyers back into the market faster than new listings come online—creating tight conditions through spring. Last year’s spring season was disrupted by tariff-related uncertainty, but absent new economic shocks, spring 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive selling seasons San Francisco has seen in years.
Marin County Real Estate Market Outlook
Marin County followed a more measured—but still resilient—trajectory in 2025. Like San Francisco, the year began with strong buyer interest before early-spring uncertainty cooled activity. As financial markets stabilized later in the year and borrowing costs eased, buyer psychology began to shift again.
Compass reports show a clear divide nationally between affluent and more price-sensitive households, and that pattern played out locally as well. Higher-end markets performed more consistently, supported by buyers benefiting from stock market gains and long-term wealth growth. Marin County, one of the Bay Area’s most affluent regions, reflects this trend.
When looking at annual data:
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The 2025 market closely resembled 2024, with slightly cooler overall activity
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Median home prices remained essentially flat year-over-year
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Market performance varied by price point, with well-located and turnkey properties continuing to attract strong interest
As 2026 gets underway, Marin is positioned for improvement. With interest rates near multi-year lows and stock markets holding near record levels, buyers are re-entering the market earlier in the year. Historically, this creates a supply-demand imbalance in spring, when buyer activity accelerates faster than new listings.
While last year’s spring season was derailed by unexpected economic disruptions, Compass expects a noticeably stronger spring market in Marin County in 2026, assuming no new external shocks.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in San Francisco and Marin
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Sellers may benefit from tightening inventory, especially in spring 2026
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Buyers should expect increased competition, particularly in desirable neighborhoods and price tiers
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Luxury and tech-driven demand is reshaping pricing and pace, especially in San Francisco
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Local expertise and timing will be critical as market conditions continue to evolve
For homeowners, buyers, and investors navigating the San Francisco and Marin County real estate markets, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year—defined by renewed confidence, strong local fundamentals, and highly neighborhood-specific opportunities.
source: compass.com
Ready to Take Advantage of the New Year Market?
Whether you're considering buying, selling, or simply planning ahead, January is shaping up to be an exciting window of opportunity in both San Francisco and Marin.
Contact Marks Realty Group if you have any questions, we are here to help you.
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL MARIN COUNTY REPORT
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