Fall arrived in the Bay Area carrying a contradiction worth understanding. Interest rates didn’t ease into the season - they climbed, with mortgage rates rising about 70 basis points in September and the 10-year Treasury yield touching 25-year highs. In most of the country, that combination pulled buyers back and slowed sales. San Francisco and Marin did close to the opposite: inventory tightened, bidding picked up, and prices held their ground.
Two forces explain the divergence. The first is the stock market, which has been trading near record highs - roughly 16% above where it sat a year ago. That kind of paper wealth tends to move quickly into Bay Area real estate, and it shows up most at the upper end of the market. The second is who’s doing the buying. Tech employment across San Francisco and San Mateo has settled back to 2019 levels, yet total tech payrolls are now twice as large, which means the region has fewer buyers carrying considerably more purchasing power. Layer in San Francisco metro prices rising 3.7% over the past year - against 2% nationally - and inbound migration returning to the Bay Area in 2025 for the first time in years, and the local picture looks far steadier than the national headlines.
Why Scarcity Is Driving This Market
The simplest way to read fall 2026 is through inventory. Across Northern California, the counties where listings shrank are exactly where buyers competed hardest, and San Francisco and Marin sat right at the front of that group. San Francisco posted the strongest year-over-year price growth in the region at 17%. Demand didn’t vanish when rates rose - it concentrated, landing on a smaller set of well-prepared homes and carrying many of them past asking.
That competition isn’t evenly spread. The strongest activity is at the higher price points, where buyers feel financing costs least, while more rate-conscious buyers nearer the entry level are taking their time. It’s a two-speed market, and knowing which lane your home—or your search - sits in matters more than any single headline number.
Spotlight on San Francisco: The Region’s Most Competitive Market
San Francisco didn’t just hold up in September; it led. The single-family median reached $2,050,000, a 17% jump from a year earlier, and an extraordinary 92% of houses sold above their asking price - 17 points higher than last September. Homes changed hands faster, too: the typical house found its buyer in 16 days, down from 23, as active single-family listings thinned by 18%.
What’s genuinely new is the condo story. For a few years, the city’s condo market lagged while houses raced ahead. That gap has now closed. The condo median climbed 23% to $1,355,500, and the share of condos selling over list leapt 27 points to 66%. Buyers are active across the full map of the city - from the Richmond and the Sunset out west to the prestige blocks of Pacific Heights and Cow Hollow - and the recovery finally reaches condominiums and lofts, not just single-family homes.
Spotlight on Marin County: Tight Supply, Steady Values
Marin’s single-family market tells a quieter version of the same story. Sales rose 12% from a year ago even as active inventory fell 27% - more buyers chasing fewer homes. The median settled at $1,700,000, up 3%, with half of all sales closing above list, a 12-point gain. Homes moved more briskly here as well, averaging 32 days on market versus 42 a year ago.
Marin’s enduring appeal is its range, and the September medians show it plainly. The county’s prestige addresses - Belvedere, Kentfield, and Ross - all cleared $3.7 million, with Tiburon and Larkspur close behind above $3.3 million. Mill Valley and Sausalito anchored the mid-market near $2.3 million, while San Rafael around $1.6 million and Novato just under $1.2 million remain the most attainable doors into Marin living. The smaller condo segment stayed steadier and more price-sensitive - often the practical first step for buyers who want a Marin address without a single-family budget.
Looking Ahead
From here, inventory will write the next chapter. Fresh fall listings are arriving - new single-family listings in San Francisco jumped 62% from August alone - and how quickly buyers absorb that supply will reveal whether September’s momentum carries through the fourth quarter. A home priced and presented with care is still being met with real competition, while a buyer who is ready and clear-eyed now has more to choose from than at nearly any point this year. The right move always depends on your timeline and your goals, and that is precisely where trusted local guidance earns its place.
Contact Marks Realty Group if you have any questions - we’re here to help you buy or sell with confidence.
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Source: Compass.com
