Two counties, one bridge, and the widest performance gap we have seen in a while
Every month we read both reports back to back, and the July data behind this August release made the divide jump off the page. San Francisco is being pushed by a narrow band of AI money. Marin is steady, and in a few towns it has quietly gone flat. The headline numbers hide most of that, so below we walk through what the Compass data through July actually says, town by town, and what we tell clients sitting on either side of the Golden Gate.
What is happening in the San Francisco market right now?
San Francisco's single-family market is carrying the most pressure in the region. The median landed at $2.05 million in July, up 25.2% year over year even after slipping 4.7% from June. One caveat worth understanding: with only 173 single-family homes closing all month, the median swings on the mix of what sold. A few extra trades in Pacific Heights pull it up; a quiet month in the western neighborhoods pulls it down. The 25% annual jump is real, but read it alongside volume, not on its own.
Price per square foot tells the cleaner story, and it also climbed, up 19.6% to $1,181. That is the number we lean on when the transaction count is this thin, because it does not distort the way a raw median does.
The clearest read on demand is at the top. In June, 44 San Francisco sales closed at least $1 million over the final ask, together more than $60 million paid above asking in a single month. Those overbids concentrate in the neighborhoods our buyers keep getting outbid in, the central and northern core running from Noe Valley and the Mission up through Pacific Heights.
The neighborhood spread is dramatic and worth naming. Pacific Heights posted an $11.1 million median, Cole Valley–Ashbury Heights more than doubled to $5,387,500, Potrero Hill rose 92.7%, and the Inner Mission climbed 81.2%. Others slipped over the same stretch. In a market this segmented, a citywide figure is close to useless on its own. The block, the condition, and the timing decide the outcome.
Supply is the engine under all of it. Single-family active listings fell 40.9% year over year to 156 homes, and closed sales dropped 11.7% to 173. Fewer sales here means nothing to buy, not buyers walking away. The proof is in how the survivors trade: 28 days on market, a 125% sale-to-list ratio, and 86% of July closings landing above list. A sale-to-list ratio that far over 100 is not a rounding detail. It means the winning buyer paid a quarter over the number on the listing, which is the reality anyone shopping the core needs to price in before they write.
Condos are the more reachable door, and they are tightening too. The median condo price rose 13.6% to $1.25 million, closed sales climbed 24.9% to 276, and inventory fell 42.5%. Condos are also going under contract 38% faster than a year ago, so the assumption that the condo market is the relaxed alternative no longer holds the way it did last summer.
How is the Marin County market different?
Marin moves to a different tempo, and the tempo is the story. The median single-family price was $1.72 million in July, up 3% year over year from $1.67 million. Sit with that figure next to June: annual appreciation cooled from 11% to 3% in a single month. Marin is not falling, but the double-digit run earlier this year has leveled.
Demand is genuinely healthy underneath the softer pricing. Closed sales rose 18% year over year to 192, one of the stronger volume numbers in the Bay Area this summer. Price per square foot reached $855, up 3%, and the county sale-to-list ratio held at 100%, up from 97% a year ago. Homes clear right around asking rather than well above it, which hands buyers here a seat at the table they do not get in the city.
Where you buy in Marin matters as much as when. The town-level numbers make that concrete. Corte Madera ran the hottest, with homes going into contract in about 7 days at a 109% sale-to-list ratio. San Rafael led the county on volume and posted the largest annual gain at 28%, at a steady 101% and 41 days, which is exactly the value-and-momentum combination pulling buyers north. Tiburon kept the highest median at $3.05 million but sat softer, down 9% for the year, a 97% ratio, and 162 days on market, the patience the top of that market demands. Larkspur fell 30%. Kentfield led on price per square foot at $1,249. Inventory closed at 402 active listings, down 22% year over year, with 165 in contract. Tighter than last year, roomier than San Francisco, and that gap is the whole reason some of our buyers cross the bridge.
Why is AI wealth driving one county and not the other?
The engine under San Francisco is the AI and tech boom. Buyers arriving with stock compensation, startup liquidity, and high salaries create a wealth effect that lands on luxury and move-in-ready homes, while the entry and mid-tiers grow at a calmer pace. According to Compass, that money is what keeps premium neighborhoods bidding through mortgage rates that would cool most markets.
Here is the part a regional headline misses: the cycle is unusually narrow. Broad Bay Area hiring has been close to flat this year, and Marin is not riding the same wave. The demand sits inside San Francisco itself, which is a large part of why these two counties are pulling apart instead of moving together.
Where do mortgage rates fit in?
Rates set the backdrop for every buyer we work with. According to Compass, mortgage rates ended July near their high for the year, around 6.58%, holding in the mid-6% band that has defined the past three years. They stay elevated on stubborn inflation, with CPI near 4.2% and PCE near 3.8%, both above the Fed's 2% target, while national hiring stays slow in a low-hire, low-fire pattern. None of this has cracked San Francisco's core. It is, though, a big reason Marin buyers negotiating near list have more leverage than their neighbors across the water.
Key Market Metrics
San Francisco Highlights
Median Sale Price (Single-Family): $2.05 million (+25.2% YoY)
Single-Family Closed Sales: 173 in July 2026
Average Days on Market: 28 days
Sale-to-List Ratio: 125%
Active Listings: 156 (−40.9% YoY)
Marin County Highlights
Median Sale Price (Single-Family): $1.72 million (+3% YoY)
Closed Sales: 192 in July 2026 (+18% YoY)
Average Days on Market: 49 days
Sale-to-List Ratio: 100%
Active Listings: 402 (−22% YoY)
Two tight markets at two different speeds. In both, the homes that are priced right and shown well are the ones still drawing quick, competitive offers.
Tips for Buyers and Sellers
If you are buying in San Francisco, come in fully underwritten and ready to move the day the right listing appears. With 86% of homes closing over list and a 125% sale-to-list ratio in the core, a second showing is often a lost home. In Marin, you can breathe. Sales clearing near asking leave real room to negotiate, especially in the towns that have pulled back this year.
If you are selling in San Francisco, a move-in-ready home in a core neighborhood is about the strongest hand this market deals. In Marin, volume and demand are with you, but with appreciation cooling to 3%, the price you set on day one carries more weight than it did six months ago. Overprice into a moderating market, and you invite the reduction. Price it correctly, and Marin still rewards you.
Looking Ahead
We expect the split to hold into the fall. San Francisco stays competitive and starved for inventory, with AI wealth keeping the premium neighborhoods bid up. Marin holds its steadier line, backed by strong sales volume and a healthier balance between buyers and sellers. Rates and inflation will keep working on the edges, but the through-July data makes our core point: this is a local market, and at the moment it is two local markets at once.
If a move on either side of the bridge is on your mind, we are glad to walk you through what these numbers mean for your specific street, price point, and timing.
Reach out to Marks Realty Group to learn more about current market conditions and how to position yourself for success in San Francisco and Marin County real estate.
Source: compass.com
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