San Francisco and Marin closed October as two of Northern California’s strongest and most competitive housing markets, standing out against a more measured national backdrop. Here, inventory stayed scarce, bidding stayed spirited, and prices climbed.
The month even brought welcome movement on rates. After the 10 year Treasury yield reached 25 year highs in September, it eased to around 4.85% following the midterm elections, and the average 30 year fixed mortgage settled back to roughly 7.17%, according to Compass’s November reports. Rates are still on the higher side of their four year range, but October’s clear direction was downward, an encouraging turn for buyers heading toward the new year.
Two deeper forces keep the Bay Area thriving on its own terms. The first is concentrated wealth. Tech headcount across San Francisco and San Mateo is back to 2019 levels, yet total tech pay, much of it in stock, has roughly doubled, which means buyers with substantial purchasing power. The second is scarcity. With San Francisco metro prices up about 3.5% year over year against a national pace near 2%, and the region drawing movers back from premium metros like Seattle and Washington, D.C., the local market rests on a foundation the national headlines do not capture.
Why Tight Inventory Keeps This Market Strong
The clearest way to read October is through supply. Where listings were scarce, buyers competed most enthusiastically, and San Francisco and Marin led that group all month.
That strength shows up a little differently across price points. Demand is most spirited at the higher end, where buyers feel financing costs least, while buyers nearer the entry level have the freedom to be selective and move at their own pace. Knowing which lane your home, or your search, occupies is where good local guidance earns its place.
There is real reassurance underneath it all. Nationally, foreclosures remain near historic lows on the strength of high homeowner equity and low unemployment, a reminder that today’s market rests on genuinely solid ground.
Spotlight on San Francisco: The Region’s Most Competitive Market
San Francisco led the region in October, and it led decisively. An impressive 86% of single family homes sold above their asking price, up nine points from a year ago and the highest October level since at least 2020, while the typical house found a buyer in just 14 days, the fastest of any month since at least 2020. The average home sold for about 128% of its original list price.
Those competition figures sit behind a headline median of $2,390,000, lifted by robust demand at the top of the market. Active single family listings stand at just 222, leaving only 0.9 months of supply, the leanest October since at least 2020, a clear signal of how motivated today’s buyers are.
The condo market has caught up in a way that is genuinely exciting. The condo median rose 12% to $1,344,500, and the share of condos selling over list jumped 25 points to 68%. Buyers are active across the full map of the city, from the family friendly avenues of the Richmond and the Sunset to the prestige blocks of Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow, and Presidio Heights, and the momentum now reaches lofts and flats, not just single family homes. For buyers who want a little more room to negotiate, condos offer a welcome bit of flexibility in an otherwise seller favored market.
Spotlight on Marin County: Tight Supply, Rising Values
Marin tells a confident version of the same story, with more buyers pursuing fewer homes and values moving higher. Single family sales rose 8% from a year ago even as active inventory came in at just 302 listings. The median reached $1,850,000, up 9% and the highest October median since at least 2020, with 40% of sales closing above list. Homes moved briskly, averaging 36 days on market, well ahead of the 47 days a year earlier.
Marin’s enduring appeal is its range, and October’s medians show it beautifully. The county’s marquee addresses, Belvedere near $4.3M, Tiburon at $3.9M, and Kentfield at $3.2M, anchor the top, with Larkspur and Sausalito close behind. Mill Valley and Corte Madera hold the mid market near $2.4M to $2.8M, while San Rafael (about $1.47M) and Novato (about $1.26M) remain wonderful and more attainable doors into Marin living. The smaller condo segment, with a median of $720,000, offers an approachable and practical first step into the county.
Looking Ahead
From here, inventory writes the next chapter. As the market settles into its seasonal rhythm through the holidays, tight supply should keep well prepared homes in strong demand, while buyers who act now enjoy a calmer, less crowded field than the spring will bring.
The opportunity this season cuts both ways. A home priced and presented with care is still meeting enthusiastic demand, while a ready, clear eyed buyer finally has a little more breathing room on rates than a month ago. Whether this is your moment to list or to buy comes down to your own timeline, and that is a conversation we would love to have with you.
Contact Marks Realty Group if you have any questions. We are here to help you buy or sell with confidence.
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL MARIN COUNTY REPORT
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL SAN FRANCISCO REPORT
Source: Compass.com
