A cooling region, two stubborn exceptions, and the widest price gap we've tracked all year.
If you've been waiting for the market to slow down before you make a move, here's the number that should change your mind: the share of homes selling above asking price in both San Francisco and Marin is up double digits year over year — even as inventory keeps shrinking. August closings dipped, the way they do every late summer. But underneath that seasonal lull, competition in both counties is intensifying, not easing.
Across the wider Bay Area, the same pattern held. Closings slipped in 13 of the 14 counties Compass tracks, yet the share of homes selling above asking rose year over year in every single one. Sellers didn't lose leverage this August — they simply had less to sell. Single-family homes kept outperforming condos regionwide, and condo price reductions ticked up in most counties, a sign that segment's recovery is still finding its footing. August was also the first full month of data since new condo lending regulations took effect, so it's too early to say how much of that softness is the new rules and how much is just the normal late-summer lull.
San Francisco and Marin, though, pulled well ahead of the pack — the two strongest counties in the region this month, each for its own reasons, and both bucking the broader cooling almost entirely.
A Narrower Window This Fall
If you're thinking about selling, this is about as strong a hand as we've seen in years. Tight inventory and rising competition reward homes that are priced and presented well from day one, and both counties are seeing sellers get multiple offers over asking on the properties that show well. If you're buying, the same tightness cuts the other way: fewer choices, faster timelines, and less room to deliberate. Being pre-approved and ready to act the week a home lists matters more right now than it has in a while.
Fall typically brings a fresh wave of listings as sellers who waited out summer finally come to market, which could loosen things slightly in October and November. Until then, both sides are operating on a shorter clock than usual.
Spotlight on San Francisco and Marin: Bucking the Regional Slowdown
San Francisco's single-family median jumped 24% year over year to $1.855 million, the strongest gain in the region, even as closings fell 9% to 150. Days on market fell from the low 30s a year ago into the low-to-mid 20s this August, and 85% of sales closed above asking — an 18-point jump that's the largest competition gain of any county Compass tracks. With just 157 active listings against 169 homes already in contract, the city is sitting at roughly one month of supply. Condos told an even stronger story: closings rose 11% to 214, the median climbed 22% to $1.233 million, and overbidding jumped 31 points to 54%. San Francisco was the only county in the region where condo prices and condo volume both grew at once.
Marin moved in a similar direction, just from a different starting point. Single-family closings rose 20% to 153, the median climbed 12% to about $1.72 million, and price per square foot rose 8% to $861 — the second-strongest price gain in the entire region, behind only San Francisco. The overbid rate climbed 11 points to 42%, and days on market fell from 42 a year ago to 33 this August. New listings actually rose 18%, but active inventory still fell 20% to 317 — buyers are simply absorbing homes faster than sellers can list them. Marin's condo market delivered the sharpest sales jump of any county — up 54% to 43 closings — though the median barely moved, holding near $717,000; worth watching, since last August's count was a modest 28 sales and new condo lending rules just took effect.
A word on the neighborhood- and town-level numbers in both markets: some of them look almost implausible. San Francisco's Presidio Heights condos rose 246%, and single-family prices in Eureka Valley and Potrero Hill jumped 237% and 467% respectively; in Marin, Belvedere's median rose 102% and Ross's 180%. Take all of these with a grain of salt — Compass's own report notes that no San Francisco neighborhood cleared ten single-family closings in both years, and Marin's smallest towns close only a handful of sales apiece, so a few high-end transactions can swing a headline percentage dramatically. The county-level figures above, and Marin's larger submarkets like San Rafael, Novato, Larkspur, and Mill Valley, are the steadier read on where each market is actually heading.
Looking Ahead
As we move toward the end of the year, expect this competitive dynamic to hold in both counties unless mortgage rates ease meaningfully or fall listings arrive in real volume. Sellers who price strategically and prepare thoroughly can still expect strong results in Marin and San Francisco alike, while buyers who stay ready to move decisively remain in the best position to compete. Whether you're weighing a sale in Kentfield or hunting for a home in Noe Valley, we'd rather you have a clear-eyed read on the market than a sales pitch — that's the idea behind curating your real estate experience, delivered the way we'd explain it to a friend.
Reach out to Marks Realty Group to learn more about current market conditions and how to position yourself for success in San Francisco and Marin County real estate.
Source: compass.com
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL SAN FRANCISCO REPORT
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL MARIN COUNTY REPORT
