According to Keeping Current Matters, despite ongoing chatter about a potential housing crash, the data paints a very different picture. Rather than a sharp decline in home values, the market is showing signs of slow, sustainable growth—a healthy correction following the frenzied pandemic years.
While real estate trends always vary by region, experts across the country agree on one key point: home prices are expected to keep rising nationally over the next five years. Some markets may see modest dips or temporary plateaus, but overall, the long-term outlook remains positive and resilient.
The Expert Consensus: Home Prices Will Keep Climbing
Every quarter, Fannie Mae’s Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) gathers insights from over 100 leading economists, housing analysts, and market strategists. Their latest findings reinforce a steady upward trajectory for home values through at least 2029.
The projections show that while annual price growth will moderate compared to the record-breaking gains of 2020–2022, each year still reflects appreciation, not decline. In other words, the housing market isn’t crashing—it’s normalizing.
Even the most conservative analysts foresee an approximate 5% rise in prices over the next few years, while the more optimistic forecasts suggest cumulative growth of up to 26% by 2029. When averaged out, that means national home values could climb about 15% over the next five years—a strong sign of underlying market stability.
The takeaway is clear: across all forecast models, no group anticipates a national decline.
Putting These Numbers in Perspective
Looking at the projected 2% to 3.5% yearly price growth through 2029, it might seem modest compared to the rapid increases of recent years. However, that’s much closer to the historical norm. Over the past 25 years, average annual home appreciation hovered around 4–5%.
The dramatic spikes during 2020–2022—driven by ultra-low mortgage rates and limited supply—pushed prices to surge at unsustainable rates of 15–20% in some areas. That kind of pace was never meant to last.
Today, the housing market is finding its balance again. A moderate rate of appreciation means home values are stabilizing, helping prevent affordability from worsening while allowing equity to continue growing for current homeowners.
Why a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon
The idea that “what goes up must come down” doesn’t hold true for housing. Real estate is a long-term asset that has historically appreciated over time. And one of the biggest reasons prices aren’t expected to drop dramatically comes down to supply and demand.
Even with affordability challenges caused by higher mortgage rates, there simply aren’t enough homes on the market to meet buyer demand. Inventory levels remain well below what’s considered balanced, keeping upward pressure on prices.
In 2008, the market collapsed largely because of an oversupply of homes combined with risky lending practices. Today’s market couldn’t be more different. Borrowers are far better qualified, lending standards are tighter, and new construction hasn’t kept up with population growth.
That imbalance between limited supply and ongoing demand creates a natural floor for prices, ensuring stability rather than decline.
What About the Broader Economy?
Concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the overall economy have understandably made some potential buyers and sellers cautious. However, history provides reassurance.
Over the past five decades, the housing market has navigated recessions, financial crises, and fluctuating interest rates—and each time, it has rebounded and continued to grow.
Housing tends to be one of the most resilient sectors of the economy because it’s driven by fundamental human needs and long-term demographic trends. As the economy stabilizes and mortgage rates eventually ease, pent-up demand is expected to re-enter the market, further fueling healthy appreciation.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
If you’ve been hesitant to make a move because you’re waiting for prices to drop, it’s time to reconsider. The data clearly shows that home values are more likely to rise than fall in the years ahead.
For buyers, that means purchasing sooner rather than later could help you build equity as prices continue to appreciate. And for sellers, today’s market still offers strong opportunities, especially with inventory remaining tight and well-priced homes attracting steady interest.
Even modest yearly gains can add up significantly over time—making homeownership one of the most effective ways to grow personal wealth.
Bottom Line
While dramatic headlines might stir uncertainty, the evidence tells a different story. The housing market isn’t heading for a crash; it’s moving toward long-term, sustainable growth.
Experts forecast continued appreciation through 2029, supported by solid demand, limited inventory, and a fundamentally sound lending environment.
The real question isn’t if home prices will rise—it’s by how much.
If you’re considering buying or selling, now is the time to focus on data, not speculation. Partner with a trusted real estate professional who can help you understand your local market, navigate current trends, and make confident decisions for your future.
source: www.keepingcurrentmatters.com
