San Francisco’s real estate market has experienced a remarkable upswing in recent months, driven largely by the city’s rapidly expanding AI start-up scene. The growth of the tech sector is bringing high-paying jobs, attracting new residents, and stimulating demand for housing across the city. This influx of activity is reflected in record-breaking rent increases, with San Francisco now leading the nation in rental growth. At the same time, median home prices have risen year-over-year, reflecting strong buyer interest and limited inventory.
September proved to be a particularly strong month for the city. Overall home sales climbed higher than in September 2024, luxury property transactions surged, and the number of listings going under contract increased significantly. New listing activity nearly doubled compared to August, signaling that sellers are eager to take advantage of the robust market. However, when looking at the year-over-year comparison, active listings and price reductions have dropped sharply. This indicates that while new properties are entering the market, overall supply remains tight, intensifying competition among buyers and placing upward pressure on prices.
The combination of strong demand and declining inventory has created a dynamic market that continues to favor sellers. Properties are moving quickly, and buyers are finding themselves in competitive situations where multiple offers are common. This trend is particularly evident in the city’s luxury segment, where high-end homes are seeing record interest and faster turnaround times than in previous years. As we move further into the autumn season, October sales data will provide additional insight into whether this momentum continues, though historically, activity tends to taper off in November as the mid-winter holidays approach.
Mortgage rates have been a critical factor in shaping market activity. As of early October, 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovered around 6.3%, essentially unchanged from early September and down from 7% at the beginning of 2025. The Federal Reserve’s first benchmark rate cut of the year, a reduction of 0.25%, had little immediate effect on borrowing costs. Nevertheless, many market analysts anticipate additional rate cuts before the end of the year, which could further stimulate buyer demand. Despite these favorable borrowing conditions, national consumer confidence remains relatively low. Many Americans are concerned about personal finances, employment stability, and inflation. However, affluent buyers who are heavily invested in the stock market are less affected by these worries, which is reflected in strong activity at the top end of the housing market.
Inflation has continued to tick upward slightly, while stock markets have reached new all-time highs. These contrasting economic signals are influencing the real estate market in complex ways. For instance, higher inflation and cost-of-living pressures are motivating some buyers to enter the market sooner rather than later, locking in current mortgage rates before further rate increases. Meanwhile, strong stock market gains give wealthy buyers confidence and additional liquidity, allowing them to compete for high-value properties without hesitation.
Turning to Marin County, the real estate market shows similar strength with some distinct characteristics. September marked a notable year-over-year increase in overall sales, while Q3 luxury home sales surged dramatically compared to Q3 2024. The number of new listings jumped significantly from August, and active listings also rose, giving buyers more options. Despite the increased activity, the Q3 median house price in Marin grew by 3% year-over-year, a modest but steady increase.
Interestingly, while some indicators reflect a cooler market compared to last year, the broader trends still point to a strong, balanced market. Absorption rates, median days on market, the frequency of price reductions, and the percentage of listings selling above list price all suggest that while the market may have softened slightly in certain segments, demand remains robust. This combination of rising prices, active luxury sales, and moderate increases in supply is shaping a market that continues to favor sellers while giving buyers ample incentive to act quickly.
For both San Francisco and Marin, the autumn season is a key period for real estate activity. October’s data will offer a clearer picture of how these markets are performing before the typical slow-down in November. Historically, the mid-winter holidays tend to reduce buyer activity, but strong demand, low inventory, and favorable financing conditions could keep the market competitive well into the final months of the year.
From an investment perspective, the current environment presents both opportunities and challenges. Strong appreciation in property values and continued demand make San Francisco and Marin attractive for long-term investments. At the same time, buyers need to navigate competitive bidding situations, limited supply, and higher-than-average rental rates. Sellers are benefiting from favorable conditions, especially in the luxury segment, where high-end properties are in demand and often sell at or above list price.
In summary, San Francisco and Marin’s real estate markets are experiencing a period of remarkable strength, driven by high demand, a booming tech sector, and limited inventory. Rising rents, increasing sales, and strong luxury home performance all point to a seller-favorable environment, while October data will provide further insight into the trajectory of the autumn selling season. Despite broader economic uncertainties, including fluctuating inflation and cautious consumer sentiment, both markets continue to show resilience, making this a dynamic and exciting time for real estate in the Bay Area.
Contact Marks Realty Group if you have any questions, we are here to help you.
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL MARIN COUNTY REPORT
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE FULL SAN FRANCISCO REPORT
